By Sidharth Mishra
Narratives do matter in polls. They increasingly started to influence voting patterns ever since the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) unveiled the power of social media during the 2013 Delhi Assembly polls, emerging as a political force from almost nowhere. Prime Minister Narendra Modi quickly picked the threads and patented it during the 2014 campaign.
The spin masters and media strategists were never as important they are today in any poll campaign. Though the best-known political spin master Prashant Kishor is conspicuous by his absence from campaign in his home state, the spin of words is complementing the pace and gruel of campaign at grassroots.
On Monday Bihar’s Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Kumar Modi took to twitter to say that the rival RJD’s Chief Ministerial face Tejashwi Yadav has humiliated the upper caste at a rally in the remote Rohtas area. Bihar BJP’s tallest leader Sushil Kumar Modi, is a known baiter of the upper castes and often targeted by leaders of his party for step-motherly treatment to communities loyal to the BJP.
Posting of such information by Sushil Modi somewhere betrays the jitter in the BJP campaign, which suspects that a section of upper caste voters could vote for the grand alliance (Mahagathbandhan) of the RJD, Congress and the Left parties. The magnitude of edginess is such that Sushil Modi has also claimed that his rivals used black magic a few years back against him.
This nerviness despite the opinion polls showing a clear lead for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), has a context. In Bihar the pre-poll surveys have often differed with the post-poll results. During the 2015 polls, BJP’s vote share was projected to be 35.5 percent and RJD-Congress together 15.2 percent.
However, when the results came out RJD-Congress together had polled 25.5 percent and BJP’s share had come down to 25 percent. Mahagathbandhan’s campaign unlike the electioneering of the past, this time around is reaching out to the communities beyond its traditional vote bank of Muslims and Yadavs.
Tejashwi so far has remained ‘vocal on local’ issues and refused to get into a debate on issues of Article 370, CAA and Ram Mandir. Promising jobs and controlling prices of essentials are the lynchpin of his campaign. In fact, to charges like use of black magic he responded saying that such moves to deviate focus.
To illustrate the point further, MIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi has been complaining that Yadav is quiet on the Muslim issues. However, the master strategist of Mahagathbandhan’s campaign (read incarcerated leader Lalu Prasad Yadav), knows for sure talking on these tricky issues would be walking on a minefield laid by the BJP.
Like Jharkhand, where Congress, RJD and JMM fought together, the focus was kept on local issues and they successfully ousted the BJP government. So, the Gupkar declaration cuts no ice, and Rahul Gandhi mentioning China doesn’t get much appreciated in the strategy room of the grand alliance.
In the back alleys of Bihar, not to forget that its politically most cognizant state, there is also talk about the volume of vitriol which Chirag Paswan is pouring on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. The narrative style which Chirag is pushing definitely not from the repertoire of his late father Ram Vilas Paswan.
The late central minister was never known to be abusive towards his political rivals and was rather known to enjoy a congenial relationship across the political spectrum, which helped him smoothly hop alliances. On the other hand, his son Chirag has even threatened to jail JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar for alleged corruption in the ‘7 Nishchay’ scheme.
Addressing an election rally, he is reported to have promised that if the LJP comes to power, he will initiate a probe and all those found responsible, whether an official or the Chief Minister, will be jailed. Given Chirag’s ‘loose’ talk, there is concern in the strategy room of Mahagathbandhan.
There is a feeling that given the past history of conflict between known supporter castes of Nitish and Dusadhs (Paswan’s community), such venomous attack on Nitish could consolidate chief minister’s vote bank. Chirag is taking this conflict further ahead by having put up candidates against another NDA alliance partner, Mahadalit leader Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustan Awam Morcha.
As mentioned in these columns earlier, given the social structuring and their impact on the voting patterns, Nitish Kumar right during his first term as the Chief Minister created the electoral vertical of the Mahadalits. In 2007, soon after he had consolidated his position as Chief minister, Nitish Kumar set up the State Mahadalit Commission to recommended inclusion of extremely weaker castes from the list of Scheduled Castes.
Dusadhs and Chamars were kept out of the list of castes recommended by the commission to be categorised as Mahadalits. Till date, despite the Mahadalit Commission coming out with two more recommendation, Dusadhs are still to find place in the Mahadalit list, though Chamars have made it.
The empowered Mahadalits, given Chirag’s spiteful attack on Nitish, could consolidate behind the chief minister the way did in 2010 and 2015. This is the 15% vote share which Nitish showcases in addition to his traditional Kurmi supporters, the community he belongs to. Thus, the alleged BJP gamble to cut Nitish Kumar to size through Chirag Paswan could end-up benefitting the incumbent Chief Minister.
(The writer is a senior journalist and political analyst)
