By Sidharth Mishra

Politics in India is based on promoting contradictory concepts of welfare and development. This is necessitated due to the complex and multifaceted nature of the country’s political mosaic. Given the large population, variable socio-economic settings, and widespread regional and cultural differences, has led to a situation where maintaining a balance between welfare and development is increasingly becoming an insurmountable task.

The results in the just concluded assembly polls in four states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana make it amply clear that BJP’s current success is based on a complicated weaving of welfare, development and cultural nationalism and it cannot be dislodged by just one issue, whether its corruption in defence deals, Hinduvta or attempt to consolidate the backward castes through caste census. 

Congress’s victory in Telangana and defeat in Rajasthan and Chhattishgarh could well indicate caste census may prove to be its biggest handicap in 2024 general elections. In the just concluded polls, Congress won Telengana with a dominant caste (Reddy) leader as its face and lost the two ruling states of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh where its incumbent chief ministers were from the other backward classes.

Here Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s counter, despite himself belonging to a backward caste, that there were just four ‘castes’ -- the poor, the youth, women, and farmers, whose upliftment concerned him. This narrative pushed by the Prime Minister comes from the policies pushed by his party interlaced into the intricacies of welfare and development.

While the Congress pushed the line of “to each according to their number” after conducting nationwide caste census, BJP pushed the satiate coverage of Modi government’s welfare schemes. One of the manifestations of this spirit can be seen in the expanding network of Jan Aushadhi Kendras (the government subsidised medicine shops).

The Narendra Modi government would go into the 2024 polls with about 20000 Jan Aushadhi Kendra spread across 800 districts. To add to this is the five year extension for Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana. 

This scheme aims to feed the poor by providing grain through the Public Distribution System, to the ration card holders and those identified by the Antyodaya Anna Yojana scheme. The PMGKAY provides 5 kg of rice or wheat (depending on the regional dietary preferences) per person and 1 kg of dal to each family holding a ration card. This has been projected the biggest food security programme in the world. Its effective implementation has made BJP harvest votes of the poor which the Congress could not do despite the Manmohan Singh government passing the Food Security Act.

This welfare spread can certainly be not countered by the Adani rant or a caste census carrot. Such schemes also deflate the Congress’s running criticisms of the BJP being a pro-rich and anti-poor especially anti-farmer party. BJP’s rural vote share in the just concluded polls amply reflects that even the farmers are voting for BJP or more pointedly Narendra Modi’s guarantees.

This was best evident in Chhattishgarh where a paddy price war raged in the run-up to the polls. The Raman Singh government in 2018 was ousted in the account of its inability to pay bonus to paddy farmers after the first two years. This time the BJP announced a higher paddy bonus and projected it as ‘Modi guarantee’. While the opposition called the Modi guarantees as mere ‘jumlas’ (election promise) but the rural voters in Chhattisgarh decided to take the offer.

To add to this is the concept of Double-Engine, the same party government at the Centre and in the states. This spurs the process of backing welfare with development. A combination of welfare and development efforts promotes long-term sustainability. While welfare programs provide immediate relief and support, development initiatives create a foundation for sustained economic growth and progress.

This is not to suggest that in 2024 there would not be any takers for the Congress policies. In a moment of his usual histrionics, Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal claimed that his party has emerged as the largest opposition in north India. The fact, however, would show that despite losing in the three Hindi heartland states, Congress’s vote share in them is higher than what it scored in Telangana.

Rather than basing their campaign on vocal growls, Congress campaign has to be programmed effectively on the data of the failings of Modi government. Like best of the best governments in the world, it has not been possible for the Modi government too to deliver 100% on its promises. Like best of the delivery systems, many a programmes would not have reached the last in the queue. It’s from here that the gauntlet has to be picked and not from the mere figures of a contaminated survey.

(First Published in News18)